CFTC dey move to regulate prediction markets; stricter controls for event contracts

Di CFTC for March 12 come give guidance say dem dey treat prediction markets as regulated financial asset class and dem tell designated contract markets (DCMs) make dem follow Commodity Exchange Act for event‑based contracts. Chair Michael S. Selig talk say the era of “no rules” don finish and the agency open Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) with 45‑day public comment period. The guidance dey require exchanges make dem strong up anti‑manipulation surveillance, make sure settlement data correct, work with sports bodies on event contracts, and put more eye for contracts wey narrow or dey touch sensitive ethics matter (like injury, death, war). The agency don show say dem fit enforce and dem don start formal rulemaking wey fit produce binding requirements. The move na response to how market don quick grow — Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly reach about $18.6 billion combined monthly volume for Feb 2026, and mid‑March don already pass $8 billion — plus the political and institutional ties dey increase. For crypto traders, the guidance mean higher compliance expectations for on‑chain and centralized prediction platforms, higher chance say high‑risk or narrowly defined contracts go comot or face stricter review, and e suppose reduce manipulation risk but go raise platform costs and operational friction. Public comments inside 45 days fit shape the final rules and timelines.