Rising LINK accumulation suggests final capitulation may be pending — watch bearish signal
Chainlink (LINK) metrics show increasing accumulation among longer-term holders even as short-term cohorts face losses, raising the possibility that a final capitulation has not yet occurred. Key on-chain signals: the 180‑day holder accumulation ratio climbed to ~74.8% from lows near 66%, while the 180‑day Mean Coin Age trended up and Dormant Circulation showed no spike—indicating long-term holders are largely holding or adding. Conversely, the 90‑day MVRV fell to ~24.3% and 90‑day Mean Coin Age plunged, implying recent buyers (short-term holders) are in ~24% unrealized losses and have been selling. Price context: LINK has defended the $8 support, reserve rose to ~2 million tokens (~$17M), weekly RSI hit 32, and price has been trading in a long-term symmetrical triangle with a lower-timeframe bullish flag emerging. Trading implication: the accumulation by long-term holders can signal conviction but may also precede a deeper bearish impulse if final capitulation is still ahead; traders should avoid aggressive entries and monitor holder‑cohort metrics, MVRV, Mean Coin Age, dormant circulation, support at $8, and volume/ETF inflows for confirmation.
Bearish
Although long-term holders are accumulating — a sign of conviction — the mixed cohort data points to elevated downside risk. The 90-day MVRV (~24%) and collapsing short-term Mean Coin Age show recent buyers are underwater and have been selling, while lack of dormant-circulation spikes among 180-day holders suggests the ’final’ long-term capitulation may still be ahead. Historically, when accumulation by long-term holders rises while short-term cohorts are in significant unrealized losses, markets can pause or experience one more bearish impulse before a sustained recovery (similar dynamics seen in previous altcoin cycles where late accumulation preceded a deeper washout). Near-term, traders should expect volatility around the $8 support: failure to hold could trigger further declines as short-term sellers accelerate. Longer-term, if long-term holders continue to add and on-chain selling pressure eases, that sets the stage for a recovery — but confirmation will require improving MVRV, rising Mean Coin Age across cohorts, stronger volume, and bullish price action breaking the triangle. Recommend cautious positioning: use tight risk management, wait for support confirmation or clear breakout, and monitor cohort metrics closely.