Circle shares hit TD Sequential sell signal despite UAE licence and USDC product wins
Circle shares showed a technical sell signal after the TD Sequential indicator flashed on the daily chart, prompting a pullback as investors booked profits. Shares traded around $88.88 at Tuesday’s close, and year-to-date gains have been eroded amid market volatility. Analyst Ali Martinez flagged the indicator after it previously identified a local bottom, noting potential downside ahead.
Despite the technical warning, Circle has expanded its regulatory and product footprint: it received Financial Services Permission to operate as a money services provider in the UAE (facilitating regulated payments and settlements using USDC), launched USDCx — a privacy-enhanced stablecoin in partnership with Aleo blockchain — and forged a partnership with Bybit to boost USDC liquidity, on/off-ramps and global utility. Baird Capital reiterated an outperform rating and set a price target, citing the Bybit tie-up.
Key market risks include stagnant USDC adoption versus dominant competitor Tether, broader crypto-market volatility, and awaiting macroeconomic data that could influence investor positioning. For traders, the news combines a near-term technical bearish cue for Circle equity with longer-term bullish fundamentals tied to regulatory approvals, product innovation (USDCx), and exchange partnerships that may expand USDC usage.
Neutral
The categorization is neutral because the news contains mixed signals for markets and traders. Short-term technicals are bearish: the TD Sequential sell signal on Circle’s daily chart typically signals further downside or at least a corrective phase, which can prompt equity selling and reduced risk appetite among traders. That increases short-term downside risk for Circle shares and could modestly weigh on USDC sentiment if investors interpret stock weakness as a proxy for business trouble.
Conversely, fundamental developments are constructive and could be bullish over the medium-to-long term. Regulatory permission in the UAE expands Circle’s institutional payment and settlement addressable market. Partnerships — Bybit for liquidity/on-off ramps and Aleo for a privacy-focused USDCx — materially improve distribution and product differentiation, reducing dependence on single channels and supporting growth in USDC circulation. Baird’s reiterated outperform rating also signals institutional buy-side conviction.
Historically, similar cases (companies showing near-term technical sell signals while announcing business expansion) produce short-term volatility followed by stabilization if product adoption and regulatory wins translate into measurable revenue or market share gains. Traders should therefore treat this as a potential short-term trading opportunity (momentum/mean-reversion plays around the sell signal) while monitoring on-chain USDC metrics, partnership execution updates, and macro data that could amplify market moves. Risk management: consider tighter stops and size controls on short-term trades, but retain a longer-term watch on USDC adoption metrics and custodial/partner flows that would validate the bullish fundamental case.