Citi: Clearer US crypto rules could spark 2026 comeback for Bitcoin and Ether

Published: 2025-12-19 19:05:00 |

Citi Research projects a significant rebound for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) over the next 12 months, tying the recovery to clearer US regulatory signals and renewed institutional demand. Citi’s base-case 12‑month targets are BTC $143,000 (≈+62% from ~$88,000) and ETH $4,304 (≈+46% from ~$2,950). The firm also outlines a bullish scenario (BTC $189,000; ETH $5,132) and a bear case (BTC $78,000; ETH $1,270), underscoring persistent volatility. Near-term headwinds include bearish technical patterns, options expiries, ETF outflows, macro weakness and corporate earnings shocks (notably Strategy/MicroStrategy cutting its 2025 forecast after Bitcoin weakness). Citi expects that regulatory clarity—such as passage of clearer rules or acts enabling ETFs and tokenised institutional products—would unlock institutional capital and trigger inflows into spot markets and ETFs. Traders should watch regulatory milestones, ETF flows, options expiries and key support levels (psychological $70k and the cited $78k bear-case) for short-term risk management, while positioning for potential upside if regulatory progress accelerates.

Bullish

Citi’s research frames regulatory clarity as the primary catalyst to reopen institutional demand and ETF/spot inflows, which would be bullish for BTC and ETH over a 12‑month horizon. The explicit upside targets (BTC $143k base, $189k bull) and expectation of capital moving into tokenised products and ETFs point to potential material price appreciation if regulatory milestones occur. However, the note also highlights meaningful near‑term risks—bearish technical setups, options expiries, ETF outflows, macro weakness and company-level shocks—so short-term price action could be choppy or draw down toward the presented bear-case (BTC $78k) before a sustained recovery. For traders this implies a bullish medium-term outlook contingent on regulatory progress, but requires active risk management around ETF flows, expiries and macro events in the short term.