Citi: Bitcoin Slides Toward $70K as ETF Inflows Slow and Long Liquidations Rise
Citi said Bitcoin has fallen below its estimated average U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETF entry price ($81,600) and traded around $73,000–$76,100 after recent declines. ETF inflows, once a major source of demand, have slowed materially while futures markets show pockets of long liquidations. Citi flagged the pre-U.S. presidential election level near $70,000 as a critical floor given the administration’s supportive stance on digital assets. The bank highlighted crypto’s sensitivity to equity and geopolitical risk, the uneven progress of a U.S. digital asset market-structure bill, and macro risks such as a shrinking Federal Reserve balance sheet reducing bank liquidity. While Citi views a prolonged crypto winter as a tail risk rather than its base case, the report warns that average ETF holders are now underwater and that approaching the $70,000 level could determine near-term direction. Key figures: Citi’s estimated average ETF entry price $81,600; recent trading range ~$73,000–$76,100; pre-election level ~$70,000.
Bearish
The report indicates several bearish drivers: slowing ETF inflows that remove a key demand source, ongoing long liquidations in futures markets that amplify downside, and macro/regulatory headwinds (Fed balance-sheet shrinkage and slow progress on a U.S. market-structure bill) that weaken sentiment. Price has already dropped below Citi’s estimated average ETF entry (~$81.6k), meaning many ETF holders are underwater—this raises the risk of additional selling pressure. The approach to the pre-election ~$70k level creates a critical technical/support zone; breaching it could trigger faster declines as stop-losses and forced liquidations cascade. Historically, ETF inflow slowdowns and long squeezes (e.g., 2021–2022 drawdowns around macro tightening) have led to multi-week bearish momentum. Short term: expect elevated volatility and potential downward pressure as traders react to inflows data and liquidation events. Long term: if ETF inflows resume or regulatory clarity improves, recovery is possible; absent that, prolonged weakness remains a risk. Traders should monitor ETF flow metrics, futures open interest and funding rates, on-chain flows, and U.S. regulatory developments for signs of a trend reversal or further deterioration.