Citi Cuts Bitcoin and Ethereum Targets on Spot ETF Outflows

Published: 2026-07-01 22:31:53 |

Citigroup (Citi) has cut its 12-month Bitcoin and Ethereum targets again, reinforcing a more risk-off stance for crypto markets. For Bitcoin (BTC), Citi’s base-case target falls to $82,000 (from $112,000). The bear case is lowered to $53,000. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin traded near $58,800 and remained below long-term moving averages. For Ethereum (ETH), the 12-month target is reduced to $2,240 (from $3,175). The bear case drops to $1,094. ETH was around $1,585, also below longer-term moving averages. Citi cites three drivers: (1) spot ETF demand has flipped—expected next-12-month net inflows are set to roughly $0, after heavy outflows; (2) U.S. regulatory progress is stalled, with the Clarity Act still stuck in Congress; (3) capital rotation toward AI infrastructure plus higher-for-longer rates, which can pressure corporate crypto treasuries. Traders should note that the latest Bitcoin price target cut aligns with continued ETF flow sensitivity: renewed outflows and regulatory delays can keep downside pressure elevated in the near term. Over the longer term, Citi argues enterprise blockchain use cases (tokenized deposits, custody, interoperability) may still support the sector, even as price forecasts turn more conservative.

Bearish

Citi’s revised Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets move deeper into downside territory, with the main near-term catalyst being spot ETF outflows. When Citi assumes next-12-month net inflows are roughly zero, it signals weaker marginal demand, which traders often translate into lower probability of sustained rallies. The stalled Clarity Act adds regulatory uncertainty, reducing institutional willingness to add risk. Finally, higher-for-longer rates and capital rotation toward AI/semiconductors can tighten liquidity and increase the chance of selling pressure from leveraged or corporate allocations. Short term, the market is likely to remain highly responsive to ETF flow headlines and could see continued risk-off positioning if outflows persist. Long term, Citi’s enterprise infrastructure narrative is supportive for adoption, but it does not offset the current bearish flow-and-regulation backdrop for price—hence a bearish bias for both BTC and ETH.