Citi Cuts Strategy (MSTR) Target; Bitcoin Forecast Slips
Citigroup analyst Peter Christiansen cut his 12-month price target for Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) in half on July 1, 2026. The target fell from $260 to $130, while the analyst kept a “Buy” rating.
Christiansen also lowered his 12-month Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast to $81,800, citing smaller expected gains for Bitcoin.
The note points to Strategy’s stress tied to large unrealized losses and the company’s response: approving Bitcoin sales to strengthen cash holdings. Strategy shares are down sharply, with the stock down more than 77% over the past year and trading around $91.04 at publication time.
Despite the caution, Citi argued Strategy’s updated capital plan improves liquidity and may buy time for the firm to stabilize.
Other Wall Street analysts remain broadly constructive: BTIG, Canaccord Genuity, and TD Cowen reiterated “Buy” ratings while also trimming targets. Average Street targets referenced by the article remain much higher than the current price, supporting an “undervalued” narrative if regulatory clarity in the US improves BTC adoption.
Neutral
The news is mixed for crypto traders. On one hand, Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin (BTC) forecast to $81,800, which can pressure short-term sentiment for BTC and, by extension, BTC-linked equities like Strategy (MSTR). On the other hand, Citi still maintains a “Buy” rating for MSTR and argues the company’s updated capital plan improves liquidity—effectively reducing immediate balance-sheet risk and “time-to-stabilize” concerns.
Historically, when analysts lower BTC price targets but simultaneously highlight liquidity/capital-management steps from BTC holders (similar to prior cycles where firms announced hedging, treasury changes, or controlled sell programs), markets often see short-term volatility in BTC futures and MSTR price, followed by a stabilization phase if liquidity funding concerns fade.
For trading, expect: (1) near-term headline-driven volatility for BTC (bearish-to-neutral impulse), (2) potential relative outperformance/defensiveness of MSTR if investors focus on liquidity runway rather than forecast downside, and (3) longer-term positioning to remain tied to US regulatory expectations for BTC adoption. Net effect: neutral overall.