Citigroup Sees Bitcoin at $181K, Rates MSTR Buy with $485 Target

Published: 2025-10-22 07:08:43 |

Citigroup has initiated coverage of MicroStrategy (MSTR) with a Buy/high-risk rating and a 12-month price target of $485, based on a forecast that Bitcoin will rally to $181,000. The firm values MSTR using a 25–35% NAV premium, reflecting MicroStrategy’s historical 2.5–3.5x Bitcoin yield multiple. Analysts warn that this approach amplifies Bitcoin volatility: in a bull market, MSTR shares may outperform, but a 25% Bitcoin decline combined with a shift to a 10% NAV discount could trigger a 61% drop in MSTR. The report highlights MicroStrategy’s ongoing Bitcoin accumulation through convertible bonds, preferred equity, and share issuances, citing recent purchases of 168 BTC at an average cost of $112,051, bringing total holdings to 640,418 BTC. Traders should weigh potential upside from Bitcoin momentum against heightened drawdown risk.

Bullish

Citigroup’s projection that Bitcoin will climb to $181,000 and its initiation of a Buy rating on MSTR underscore bullish market sentiment. Short-term, this may spur increased BTC and MSTR buying as traders anticipate gains. But the highlighted NAV premium and amplified volatility also warn of potential pullbacks. Long-term, MicroStrategy’s continued BTC accumulation via convertible bonds and equity issuances may underpin further upside for Bitcoin. Despite volatility risks, the overall outlook for Bitcoin is bullish, driven by institutional confidence and strategic accumulation.