Citigroup cuts BTC/ETH 12-month targets on stalled US crypto legislation
Citigroup cut its 12-month price targets on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), citing stalled US crypto legislation as a weaker near-term catalyst for adoption and institutional flows.
BTC target was lowered to $112,000 from about $143,000 (roughly -21.7%). ETH target was reduced to $3,175 from $4,304 (about -26.2%). Citi pointed to the Clarity Act stalling in the US Senate, with stablecoin rule disputes and a shrinking 2026 legislative window.
Base-case expectation: without clearer policy, Citi sees choppy/sideways trading, with BTC potentially consolidating around $70,000. Bear case: recession plus regulatory delays could push BTC toward $58,000 and ETH to $1,198. Bull case: stronger investor flows could lift BTC to $165,000 and ETH to $4,488.
Citi is relatively more cautious on ETH, saying ETH’s valuation is highly sensitive to on-chain and user activity, which has recently softened. Still, stablecoins and tokenization trends may continue to support interest in the Ethereum ecosystem.
Crypto-trader takeaway: expectations for near-term “regulatory relief” are being repriced, increasing the odds of range trading until US policy momentum returns. Watch BTC and ETH response around any US stablecoin/DeFi framework headlines.
Bearish
Citigroup’s decision to cut BTC and ETH 12-month targets is a negative signal for market sentiment because it reflects weaker expectations for near-term US regulatory “relief.” The bank’s base case still points to consolidation/chop (often bearish for breakout traders), while its downside scenarios explicitly tie regulatory delays and recession risk to further sell pressure (BTC toward $58,000; ETH toward $1,198). Even though Citi offers a bullish scenario, the most actionable near-term takeaway for BTC and ETH traders is that uncertainty is likely to cap upside and keep price action range-bound until stablecoin/DeFi policy momentum improves.