CLARITY Act odds hit 68% as stablecoin yield talks advance

The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming U.S. law have risen to about 68%, after improved progress in Senate Banking Committee talks and new compromises on key crypto issues. The bill would set a clearer U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoin rules and a potential split of oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. A key near-term catalyst is the Senate Banking Committee markup track, chaired by Tim Scott, now viewed as moving into a “red zone,” with markup expected around May 2026. Negotiations also reportedly narrowed after a stablecoin yield compromise, helping align the CLARITY Act with the GENIUS Act approach to harmonize digital-asset regulation. However, traders should price in a political risk: the Senate power balance could change, with prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket) showing a close to 50-50 race. If control shifts toward Democrats, critics like Elizabeth Warren could gain more influence, potentially delaying or reshaping the CLARITY Act. If Republicans retain sway, supporters expect faster movement. For markets, the core takeaway is that clearer rules under the CLARITY Act could reduce compliance uncertainty (securities vs commodities and related obligations). But near-term price action may still react more to election headlines and committee politics than to the bill’s technical progress.