CLARITY Act Passage Unlikely as Crypto Rules May Be Split
The CLARITY Act is unlikely to pass in its current form, according to Andy, host of The Rollup podcast, citing conversations with people in Washington. Although Polymarket prices the bill’s passage at 18%, Andy estimates the real probability at only 3%–5%. He said political concerns over former President Donald Trump’s crypto-related interests remain unresolved, creating a major obstacle for bipartisan support. The CLARITY Act has also received tens of millions of dollars in industry funding and roughly 18 months of lobbying, making lawmakers reluctant to publicly concede that it may fail. Andy said the CLARITY Act could instead be divided into several narrower bills covering stablecoins, tokenisation, perpetual futures and prediction-market exemptions. For crypto traders, the news signals continued uncertainty over US market structure and digital-asset regulation. A failed comprehensive bill could weigh on sentiment in the short term, while targeted legislation may eventually provide clearer rules for specific sectors.
Neutral
The expected market impact is neutral because the report contains both negative and potentially positive elements. In the short term, the sharply lower estimated probability of CLARITY Act passage could weaken sentiment toward US-regulated crypto businesses and reduce expectations for a broad market-structure framework. Traders may also interpret the report as a delay to regulatory clarity, increasing volatility in tokens and sectors that depend on US legislative progress. However, the possible shift toward separate bills for stablecoins, tokenisation, perpetual futures and prediction markets does not represent a complete policy rejection. Targeted legislation could advance more easily than a large omnibus bill and may ultimately deliver clearer rules to individual sectors. Similar regulatory episodes have often produced an initial risk-off reaction when major bills stall, followed by selective gains when narrower measures progress. Market indicators to watch include Polymarket’s implied probability, statements from congressional leaders, stablecoin-related legislative activity, and trading volumes in affected sectors. Unless lawmakers confirm a concrete replacement bill, the immediate effect is likely to remain limited and sentiment-driven. Over the longer term, fragmented regulation could create uneven compliance costs across crypto businesses, but successful sector-specific legislation could support institutional participation and market stability.