CLARITY Act Senate Vote Looms Before August Recess: BTC Outlook

The U.S. Senate is working to vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess, a move pushed by the Trump administration. Negotiations have stalled over ethics and conflict-of-interest language, including limits on what state attorneys general can enforce and concern that the bill could target the president. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading cautiously near the low-$60K range as traders wait for clarity. The current price compression could break into a sharp move after the CLARITY Act decision, making the vote a key short-term catalyst. Bullish expectations center on regulatory clarity that could reduce the main overhang around token classification, exchange operations, and institutional participation. The article also points to potential sector rotation into DeFi, Layer 1s, Layer 2s, and real-world asset (RWA) protocols. It cites Standard Chartered’s view that an XRP ETF could see up to $8B in inflows if the bill passes, and notes that after the May committee vote, more than $550M in leveraged BTC shorts could be exposed to a squeeze if momentum turns positive. Bearish risk remains if the CLARITY Act fails or is delayed. Polymarket pricing for 2026 passage reportedly fell to about 67% (from 82% in February), signaling rising uncertainty. A failed vote could pressure BTC back toward the ~$75K area and trigger sentiment unwind. Traders’ near-term focus is the vote count (60-vote threshold mentioned) and whether a compromise on ethics language emerges—two likely “dominoes” for BTC direction.