Crypto Clarity Act Odds Fall to 50% on Ethics Hold
Kalshi prediction markets show the Crypto Clarity Act’s passage odds at 50%, down from 74% a month ago, signaling weaker momentum for US crypto regulatory clarity. The bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, has cleared the House and the Senate Banking Committee, but it still faces major hurdles before the Senate full vote.
The latest reported blocker is an ethics impasse tied to the President’s personal cryptocurrency holdings, which could affect how lawmakers finalize the required provisions. Timing also matters: with the Senate’s August recess approaching, traders are pricing a higher risk of delay or failure to reach a floor vote. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s scheduling is highlighted as a near-term catalyst, while signals from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House Crypto Adviser David Sacks could shift sentiment.
For traders, the key takeaway is that the Crypto Clarity Act narrative is cooling in prediction markets, which can raise short-term volatility around US regulation headlines and pressure risk appetite for major crypto assets.
Bearish
The bill’s odds are falling sharply on Kalshi, from ~74% to ~50%, and the new emphasis on a President-related ethics impasse increases uncertainty about whether the Crypto Clarity Act can clear the final Senate procedural hurdles. As the August recess deadline tightens, traders are more likely to price in delay risk, which typically supports a risk-off tone in the near term. Even if the long-run regulatory direction remains constructive, the combination of reduced probability, scheduling sensitivity around Schumer, and potential sentiment shifts from Bessent/Sacks can keep volatility elevated and weigh on major crypto assets short term.