AI attack slashes HAWK post-quantum signatures (2^64→2^38)

Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview reported a new classical-cryptanalysis attack on HAWK post-quantum signatures, despite the scheme passing two years of expert review. The model reportedly found the break in about 60 hours using roughly $100,000 of compute. The key result: the effective work to break HAWK’s smallest parameter set drops from ~2^64 operations to ~2^38. To defend, HAWK would likely need much larger keys, which largely removes the scheme’s practical advantages (including compact signatures that can reduce blockchain fees and space). For traders, the immediate impact is limited. The research does not target the elliptic-curve signatures used by Bitcoin and Ethereum today, and HAWK is not the scheme Bitcoin is moving to under the quantum-address proposal BIP-360. Broader market relevance: the faster pace of classical attacks aligns with the “migration timeline tightening” argument in BIP-361. Separately, the same work improved attacks on a weakened AES variant relevant to wallet-file encryption, while gains against Poseidon (used in many ZK systems) were under ~10x. Overall, this is a watch-item for post-quantum migration planning rather than a direct short-term catalyst for BTC/ETH security.
Neutral
Neutral for price: this is a security-planning update for post-quantum migration, not a direct break of BTC/ETH today. The HAWK finding may renew caution around timelines and replacement assumptions, but the article explicitly says Bitcoin and Ethereum’s current elliptic-curve signatures aren’t targeted, and HAWK is not the BIP-360 migration target. Short-term, traders are unlikely to treat it as an immediate fundamental risk to BTC/ETH cashflows or transaction validation. Long-term, it can support continued “migration timeline” debate (BIP-361/BIP-360), and could affect expectations for infrastructure upgrades, but that influence is indirect and more likely to show up as sentiment/option-pricing effects rather than spot-price direction. Hence, overall impact on the mentioned coins’ prices is best categorized as neutral.