CoinMarketCap Sees Next Crypto Bull Cycle in Q1 2026 Led by Institutional Flows, ETFs and Regulatory Clarity
CoinMarketCap research director Alice Liu forecasts the next major crypto bull cycle will begin in Q1 2026, citing growing institutional participation, ETF adoption and clearer regulation as the primary long-term drivers. Near-term market behavior remains volatile: Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $90,000 area but is still roughly 30% below its October peak, and around $20 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated during the recent downturn. Perpetual futures funding rates turned negative, driving some traders into stablecoins. Market breadth was modest — total crypto market cap rose about 1.1% over 72 hours while open interest increased only ~1.14%, indicating limited leverage appetite. Institutional flows recently favored Ethereum: BlackRock’s ETHA ETF saw $53 million of inflows, helping lift ETH which posted a weekly gain (~6.5%), while some Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows. BNB Chain market cap also expanded amid ecosystem growth. Macro correlation signals were mixed and the CMC Altcoin Season Index sits at 22/100 (’Bitcoin season’), with BTC dominance at ~58.55%. Industry figures including Binance CEO Richard Teng, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Solana Foundation president Lily Liu expressed long-term optimism, noting that regulatory clarity and ETF adoption remain underpriced. Key trading takeaways: the market’s path to a coordinated multi-asset bull phase appears aimed at early 2026, but short-term risks persist — monitor ETF flows, funding rates, open interest, BTC dominance and altcoin season metrics for trade signals. Disclaimer: not investment advice.
Neutral
The news is overall neutral for price direction in the short term but constructive for longer-term bullishness. Short-term indicators cited — large liquidations (~$20B), negative perpetual funding rates, modest open interest growth and only a 1.1% market rise — point to subdued leverage appetite and elevated volatility, which can limit immediate upside and increase downside risk. The CMC Altcoin Season Index (22/100) and BTC dominance (~58.55%) indicate capital concentration in Bitcoin rather than broad altcoin rallies, keeping altcoin upside constrained. Conversely, institutional signals (notably $53M into BlackRock’s ETHA) and commentary from industry leaders highlighting regulatory clarity and ETF adoption support a structural bullish case toward 2026. For traders, that means: expect choppy, event-driven price action near term (neutral to mixed bias), but monitor ETF flows, funding rates and open interest for signs of renewed conviction — sustained, increasing institutional inflows and rising open interest could shift the outlook to clearly bullish as the market builds toward the projected Q1 2026 cycle.