CME FedWatch Sees 17.7% Chance of Jan 2026 25bp Cut — Fed Odds Weigh on Bitcoin
CME FedWatch currently prices a 17.7% chance of a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut at the Jan. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an 82.3% probability of no change. Looking through the March 18, 2026 meeting, markets show 46.7% odds of unchanged policy, 45.6% for a cumulative 25bp cut, and 7.7% for a 50bp easing. These updated probabilities are lower for an immediate January cut compared with earlier readings and reflect shifting market views on the Fed’s path. For crypto markets, changes in Fed rate expectations drive liquidity and risk appetite: higher odds of easing typically support Bitcoin (BTC) and large-cap tokens, while reduced near-term easing prospects can pressure risk assets. Traders should monitor incoming macro data, FOMC communications and daily FedWatch updates, adjust models and position sizing accordingly, and prioritize disciplined risk management and high-conviction trades as liquidity conditions evolve.
Neutral
The updated FedWatch probabilities lower the near-term chance of a 25bp cut in January while leaving meaningful odds of easing by March. This mixed signal produces a neutral price outlook for Bitcoin. Near-term, reduced odds of an immediate cut can sap risk appetite and exert downward pressure on BTC and large-cap tokens. However, the roughly equal market pricing for a 25bp easing by March keeps a path open for renewed liquidity and risk-on flows if macro data weakens or Fed communications turn dovish. Traders should expect increased volatility around key data and FOMC dates. Short-term trade setups may favor defensive sizing, tighter stops and hedges, while longer-term holders should watch liquidity indicators and yield trends that historically correlate with crypto rallies when monetary policy eases.