Coinbase stock forms death cross as firm prepares predictions market and Base token roadmap
Coinbase Global (COIN) shares have formed a death cross on the daily chart as the 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA, signaling technical weakness. The stock traded around $252.70, down over 43% from its 2025 high, and recently fell below key support at $290. Market cap has declined from above $90B in July to about $68B. Analysts expect weaker near-term fundamentals: average revenue estimate for the quarter is $1.96B (‑13.9% YoY) and EPS is forecast at $1.06 versus $4.68 year‑ago. Price pressure has followed the broader crypto downturn — Bitcoin and total crypto market caps are well below year‑to‑date highs — and exchanges typically see lower volumes in such environments. Near‑term corporate catalysts include today’s Coinbase System Update where Coinbase plans to launch a predictions market (likely with Kalshi) and Base will outline a roadmap for a potential $BASE token launch. Traders should note technical targets: immediate downside target near $231 with psychological support at $200 if selling continues. Competitive headwinds from SoFi, Vanguard and Charles Schwab entering crypto services add structural risk. Key keywords: Coinbase, COIN, death cross, predictions market, Base, $BASE, Bitcoin, revenue, EPS, market cap.
Bearish
Technical, fundamental and macro factors point to a bearish short- to medium-term outlook. The death cross on the daily chart is a widely used technical signal that often precedes extended selling; immediate technical targets cited in the article are $231 and then $200 if momentum continues. Fundamental guidance is weakening: revenue and EPS estimates for the quarter are materially below last year’s levels, reflecting depressed trading volumes amid a broader crypto market downturn. Historically, exchange stocks underperform during prolonged crypto sell-offs (for example, prior slump periods saw volume-driven revenue declines at major exchanges and corresponding share-price pressure). The upcoming product launches (predictions market and Base/$BASE roadmap) are potential positive catalysts, but they present execution and timing risk and are unlikely to offset near-term macro and earnings concerns immediately. Competition from traditional financial firms adds structural downside risk to user-growth and fee revenue. For traders: expect volatility around the launch event — short-term reactions could be either spike (on surprise positives) or further sell-off (on underwhelming details). Positioning guidance: short-term traders may favor downside exposure or tight stops; longer-term investors should wait for confirmed trend reversal or clear monetization signs from Base and improved revenue guidance.