Coinbase Misses Revenue Forecast as Users Decline
Coinbase reported third-quarter revenue of $1.20 billion, below analysts’ $1.233 billion estimate. Subscription and services revenue reached $570 million, while monthly transacting users fell to 7.4 million from 9.3 million a year earlier. Coinbase’s share of crypto trading volume rose for a fourth consecutive quarter to 10.7%, and adjusted EBITDA was $332.9 million, marking 15 straight profitable quarters on that measure. The company also said its prediction markets business exceeded $200 million in annualized revenue, and Coinbase One subscriptions reached a record high.
Separately, CEO Brian Armstrong filed a Rule 10b5-1 plan to sell up to 8.17 million Coinbase Class A shares between November 2026 and October 2027, subject to price conditions. Similar plans by co-founder Fred Ehrsam and President Emilie Choi bring the total to about 13.6 million shares. Armstrong has described scheduled sales as personal risk management.
Coinbase shares fell about 15% amid wider market weakness following Binance’s disclosure of a major security breach. Bitcoin dropped roughly 4.5% to below $77,000, while Strategy and Strive shares also declined. The article additionally reports that Coinbase bought 643 BTC, worth about $1.5 billion, for its balance sheet in the third quarter. Coinbase shares are down more than 55% this year.
Bearish
The near-term tone is bearish because the article combines weaker-than-expected Coinbase revenue, a sharp year-on-year fall in monthly transacting users, scheduled insider share sales and a reported major Binance security breach. Coinbase shares fell about 15%, while Bitcoin and other crypto-linked equities also declined. A serious exchange-security event can increase counterparty concerns, prompt traders to reduce exposure or move assets off exchanges, and raise volatility across crypto markets. Similar exchange failures and hacks have historically triggered abrupt risk-off trading, although price effects have often eased when customer assets remained accessible and losses were contained.
The negative picture is not uniform. Coinbase gained trading-volume share, recurring subscription and services revenue grew, and the company remained profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis. Its reported purchase of 643 BTC may also be read as a sign of balance-sheet conviction. Armstrong’s 10b5-1 plan is scheduled in advance and does not by itself establish that he expects the stock to fall, though the scale of planned sales could weigh on sentiment.
In the short term, traders are likely to focus on verified details of the Binance incident, withdrawal and deposit status, Bitcoin’s price levels, and whether outflows or volatility accelerate. If the breach is contained and market confidence recovers, the shock could fade. Longer term, Coinbase’s outlook will depend on trading activity, user growth, recurring revenue and how effectively exchanges demonstrate security and financial resilience. The article therefore points to near-term downside risk, while Coinbase’s operating gains offer some counterweight.