Coinbase UTXO Reshuffle Inflated LTH Selling Signals — Filtered Data Shows Accumulation
On-chain signals that appeared to show heavy Bitcoin (BTC) selling by long-term holders (LTHs) were largely distorted by a late‑November Coinbase internal UTXO reshuffle that moved nearly 800,000 BTC. Analysts including CryptoQuant and on-chain specialist Darkfost say these custodial transfers generated large apparent LTH outflows without representing actual market sales. After removing exchange-related movements, LTH coin‑days‑destroyed and supply metrics realign with prior consolidation phases; updated data even show a net ~2.5% increase in LTH supply over the past quarter. Supporting indicators point to a more balanced market: the NVT Golden Cross has recovered from deeply undervalued readings toward neutral (a pattern historically associated with accumulation), and BTC’s RSI approached oversold levels that have often preceded 15–30% relief rallies. Price, however, remains below major EMAs and institutional custody flows and macro uncertainty could keep near‑term volatility elevated. For traders: treat raw LTH outflow metrics with caution and filter out exchange custodial movements; current on‑chain evidence favors steady accumulation rather than panic selling, but bullish confirmation requires price reclaiming key EMAs and breaking short‑term resistance levels.
Bullish
After reconciling both articles, the net effect is constructive for BTC price compared with the initial alarm. The headline selling was mainly a technical artifact from Coinbase’s internal UTXO reshuffle, not broad market liquidation. Filtered on‑chain metrics show LTH supply steady to slightly higher (~+2.5% over the quarter), and valuation indicators (NVT Golden Cross recovering, RSI near oversold) historically precede relief rallies. Those factors support a medium‑term bullish tilt as accumulation is the dominant flow rather than panic selling. However, important caveats remain: price sits below major EMAs, short‑term resistance must be overcome for a sustained move higher, and institutional custody activity plus macro uncertainty could keep volatility high. For traders this means a cautious bullish stance — look for confirmations such as EMA reclaim, break of local resistance, or sustained outflows from exchanges before adding directional exposure; otherwise prioritize scaled accumulation and defined risk management.