Coinbase Premium Hits Lowest Since Dec 2024 as ETFs Turn Net Sellers
The Coinbase premium — the price gap between BTC/USD on Coinbase Advanced Trade and BTC/USDT on Binance — has fallen to -167.8, the weakest reading since December 2024, per CryptoQuant. The volume-weighted indicator has trended down since mid‑October and dropped further in early February 2026, a move analysts interpret as intensified selling pressure from Coinbase-linked venues typically used by institutional and professional traders. Concurrently, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have flipped from heavy net buyers in 2025 (about +46,000 BTC) to net sellers in 2026 (about -10,600 BTC), creating an approximate 56,000 BTC year‑over‑year demand gap. Spot ETF outflows totaled roughly $1.2 billion over the past week while BTC slid below $71,000 to a 15‑month low. CryptoQuant warns the market environment is “not conducive to risk‑taking,” citing weaker institutional participation and added supply from ETF selling. For traders: the negative Coinbase premium and ETF outflows are near‑term supply signals that increase downside risk and could drive heightened volatility in BTC. Key SEO keywords: Coinbase premium, Bitcoin ETF outflows, BTC price, institutional selling, spot Bitcoin ETF.
Bearish
The combined evidence points to a bearish near‑term outlook for BTC. A negative Coinbase premium (reading -167.8) signals concentrated selling pressure from Coinbase‑linked, institutionally used venues — historically a reliable near‑term supply indicator. At the same time, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from net buyers in 2025 to net sellers in 2026, producing an estimated ~56,000 BTC year‑over‑year demand gap and roughly $1.2 billion in outflows over the past week. These ETF outflows both add direct selling supply and reflect weaker institutional demand. Price already responded by falling to a 15‑month low below $71,000, suggesting reduced buyer support. For traders, this combination increases the risk of further downside and elevated volatility in the near term. Over the medium term, sustained ETF selling and persistent negative premium would continue to weigh on price; however, if ETF flows stabilize or reverse and the Coinbase premium normalizes, downside pressure could ease. In short: heightened supply from institutional channels and ETF outflows is likely to maintain bearish pressure until demand dynamics shift.