Persistent Negative Coinbase Premium Signals Weak US Spot Demand for Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell from the $80,000 support into the $74,000 area, prompting concerns that the market may be shifting from a corrective pause into a broader bearish phase. On-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable change in the Coinbase Premium Index: whereas discounts on Coinbase in early 2025 were brief and often absorbed (indicative of tactical selling into strength), recent negative premiums are deeper and more persistent. This suggests US spot demand is not stepping in to absorb sell-offs. As a result, rebounds lack confirmation from spot buy flows and price action appears increasingly driven by derivatives, leverage and short-term positioning. Technical structure also weakened: BTC is trading below the 50-week moving average (now rolling over), the 100-week MA has flipped to resistance near the mid-$80,000s, and weekly price action shows lower highs and lower lows since a mid-2025 peak above $120,000. Elevated volume on selling moves points to distribution. CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium readings must turn positive and hold for upside momentum to regain structural strength; until then, downside risk to longer-term demand levels remains elevated.
Bearish
The persistent negative Coinbase Premium signals a sustained lack of US spot buying interest — a group that historically helps stabilize price during drawdowns. When discounts on a major US exchange remain unresolved after price adjustments, it indicates buyers are staying sidelined rather than absorbing supply. Coupled with technical deterioration (price below 50-week MA, 100-week MA flipped to resistance, lower highs/lows) and higher volume on sell-offs, the setup favors further downside. Similar patterns played out during prior distribution phases when derivatives-led selling outpaced spot inflows, producing extended corrections until fresh capital returned (often after multi-week consolidation or macro shifts). In the short term, expect lower conviction rebounds and volatility driven by futures/liquidations. In the medium-to-long term, unless Coinbase Premium normalizes and spot inflows resume, risk remains skewed to deeper tests of long-term demand (potentially toward lower weekly MA zones). Traders should reduce directional long exposure unless clear, sustained positive premium readings and reclaim of $85k–$90k occur; consider hedges or position sizing to manage tail risk from leveraged derivatives activity.