Analysts Cut Coinbase Targets; COIN Slides Ahead of Earnings
Major banks trimmed price targets for Coinbase (COIN) ahead of the exchange’s quarterly earnings, triggering a roughly 6% intraday drop and extending a year‑to‑date decline of about 34% as shares traded near $150. JPMorgan lowered its year‑end target from $399 to $290 citing weaker crypto trading volumes, reduced stablecoin (USDC) circulation and rising competition from overseas exchanges pursuing U.S. listings. Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target to $221 (from $277) and Citi lowered its target to $400 (from $505); all maintained positive/buy ratings. The downgrades come amid broad crypto weakness — Bitcoin has fallen roughly 27% over the past month to about $67,000 — and analysts now model softer near‑term revenue and EPS (analyst Q4 2025 EPS modeled near $1.05). Market commentary also flagged Coinbase asking sell‑side analysts to submit questions ahead of the call, an unusual step some viewed as signaling caution. For traders: reduced price targets, lower projected volumes and shrinking stablecoin flows point to near‑term downside pressure on COIN, while intensified competition (OKX, Kraken, Gemini and other entrants) increases medium‑term risks to market share and revenue growth.
Bearish
The combined news points to a bearish outlook for COIN. Multiple major banks trimmed price targets while maintaining buy/positive ratings, signaling lowered expectations for near‑term revenue and EPS driven by weaker crypto trading volumes and reduced stablecoin (USDC) circulation. The share price fell intraday and is down substantially year‑to‑date, reflecting market sensitivity to volume and Bitcoin weakness (BTC down ~27% over the past month). Additional factors increasing downside risk include intensifying competition from global exchanges and unusual management behavior (requesting analyst questions pre‑call), which market participants may interpret as caution. Short term: expect increased volatility and potential downside as traders price in lower volumes and earnings risk. Medium term: competitive pressure and stablecoin outflows pose continued downside to growth and valuation unless Coinbase demonstrates recovery in volumes or new revenue streams. Overall, catalysts favor selling or hedging rather than opening fresh long exposure ahead of the earnings release.