Coinbase earnings miss: revenue and EPS no meet forecast; COIN drop pass 5%

Coinbase results for Q1 disappoint investors as revenue and profit fall short of consensus, making COIN drop over 5% after market close. Coinbase reported Q1 EPS of -$1.49 versus expected +$0.27, and revenue of $1.41B versus $1.52B consensus. The miss was driven by a trading-led slowdown. Trading revenue was $755.8M (below $805.2M expected), while subscription and services revenue—often seen as a stabiliser—was $583.5M (below $619.3M expected). Management blamed weaker crypto prices, cooled trading activity, and tighter volatility that hit spot volumes. On the upside, Coinbase highlighted early momentum in lower-fee recurring areas. Derivatives helped push global market share to 8.6% (a record), with derivatives volume up 169% YoY over the last 12 months. It also noted progress in prediction markets (U.S. launch: $100M annualised revenue in about two months) and that Base handled 62% of global on-chain stablecoin transactions in the quarter. To manage the downturn, Coinbase announced about 700 job cuts (~14%) and an AI-led organisational rework. For traders, the near-term setup remains sensitive to spot liquidity and trading volumes—core drivers that are currently contracting—while investors will watch whether derivatives, subscriptions, and infrastructure can cushion the next quarters’ fiscal impact.