Coinbase posts $667M Q4 loss as Bitcoin slump hits transaction revenue
Coinbase reported a $667 million net loss in Q4 2025, ending an eight-quarter profit run and marking its first quarterly loss since Q3 2023. Net revenue fell about 21–22% year‑on‑year to roughly $1.78–1.8 billion, missing estimates. Transaction-related revenue dropped sharply (around 37%), while subscription and services revenue rose about 13%. The results coincided with a broad crypto market sell-off: Bitcoin fell roughly 25–30% from its early‑October peak to below $88,500 by Dec. 31 and traded near $65,760 at year‑end. Coinbase also recorded markdowns on its crypto holdings. Despite the miss, shares ticked up in after‑hours trading after an intraday decline. Management highlighted operational gains — custody of over 12% of global crypto assets and progress toward an “everything exchange” — and reiterated diversification into derivatives, stock trading, prediction markets and stablecoin-related revenue (notably via USD Coin). Traders should note: lower fee‑based liquidity and trading volume increase Coinbase’s sensitivity to spot price swings; stablecoin and subscription services are growing revenue cushions; and proposed U.S. stablecoin rules pose regulatory risk to Coinbase’s revenue sharing with Circle. Key data points for traders: $667M net loss, ~$1.78B revenue (down ~21–22%), transaction revenue ≈ $982.7M (down ~37%), subscription/services ≈ $727M (up ~13%), Bitcoin down ~25–30% from October peak, COIN stock volatility year‑to‑date.
Bearish
The financial results and market context point to a bearish impact on Bitcoin price in the short to medium term. A sharp drop in Coinbase’s transaction revenue (≈37%) shows reduced retail and trading participation, which typically lowers on‑exchange liquidity and can amplify price volatility during sell‑offs. Markdowns on Coinbase’s own crypto holdings reflect balance‑sheet pressure that can translate into cautious behaviour from the firm and other exchanges (e.g., hiring freezes or asset sales) — actions that can add selling pressure. Although subscription, custody and stablecoin revenue are growing and provide partial insulation, they do not fully offset the decline in fee‑based trading revenue tied to spot volume. Regulatory uncertainty over U.S. stablecoin rules introduces additional downside risk to stablecoin‑related income and could dampen investor sentiment. Taken together, these factors suggest heightened downside risk for Bitcoin near term and slower bullish momentum until trading volumes and regulatory clarity improve. Over the longer term, Coinbase’s diversification into derivatives and stablecoin services could support a recovery in trading activity, but that depends on market rebound and regulatory outcomes.