CoinShares: Quantum threat to Bitcoin limited — ~10,200 BTC pose near‑term market risk
CoinShares’ report says an imminent quantum‑computing threat to Bitcoin is overstated. The firm focuses on legacy Pay‑to‑Public‑Key (P2PK) addresses, estimating ~1.6 million BTC (~8% of supply) are exposed because public keys are revealed on‑chain. However, only about 10,200 BTC are concentrated in large single UTXOs that could cause meaningful market disruption if stolen; the remainder is spread across ~32,000 UTXOs averaging ~50 BTC each, making mass theft slow and detectable. CoinShares and cited experts (Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet, Bitcoin developers) argue practical attacks need fault‑tolerant quantum computers with millions of qubits — roughly 100,000× the power of current devices — placing material risk at least a decade away. The report recommends gradual adoption of post‑quantum signatures (wallet upgrades and proposals such as BIP‑360) rather than emergency measures. For traders: the immediate market impact on BTC is limited and largely theoretical today, but monitor wallet migrations, institutional wallet upgrades, and any large UTXO movements tied to legacy P2PK addresses that could increase short‑term volatility.
Neutral
The report reduces near‑term existential concerns by quantifying exposure and showing only ~10,200 BTC in concentrated UTXOs are plausibly actionable in the near term. That limits the immediate price impact on BTC: widespread panic or forced selling is unlikely while the bulk of exposed coins are fragmented and theft would be slow and observable. Longer term, the requirement for fault‑tolerant, million‑qubit machines keeps practical risk distant, but the story encourages gradual technical upgrades (post‑quantum signatures) and monitoring of legacy wallets. Short‑term: potential localized volatility if any holders of large P2PK UTXOs move funds or upgrade wallets; watch on‑chain alerts and large transfers. Mid/long‑term: neutral to slightly constructive as orderly upgrades and clearer risk communication reduce systemic uncertainty. Overall, traders should treat this as an operational/technical risk to monitor, not an immediate catalyst for major BTC price moves.