CoinShares: Quantum computing poses a real but distant risk to Bitcoin
CoinShares says quantum computing is a credible long-term threat to Bitcoin (BTC) cryptography but not an immediate crisis. The firm’s analysis finds current quantum hardware and algorithms remain far from the scale needed to run Shor’s algorithm or otherwise break Bitcoin signatures at scale. Only about 8% of BTC sits in legacy addresses that already expose public keys on-chain; an even smaller share is immediately exploitable in a destabilising way. Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing and mining are considered resilient to near-term quantum advances. Recommended mitigations include: users migrating funds from legacy addresses to modern address formats that keep public keys private, and developers preparing contingencies such as a protocol upgrade to quantum-resistant signatures if/when needed. CoinShares cautions against rushed hard forks or deploying untested post-quantum cryptography that could introduce bugs or centralisation risks. For traders, the takeaway is that quantum risk is a long-term engineering challenge likely a decade or more away, giving markets and developers time to monitor quantum hardware progress, follow cryptanalysis breakthroughs, and plan orderly upgrades rather than panic-driven moves.
Neutral
The news is unlikely to move BTC prices materially in the short term. CoinShares frames quantum computing as a plausible but distant threat: current technology is insufficient to break Bitcoin signatures at scale, and only a small share of BTC (legacy addresses) is exposed today. That reduces immediate attack vectors and panic selling risk. Recommended mitigations (address migration, contingency planning, and potential protocol upgrades) are manageable steps that can be taken over years. In the short term, traders should expect minimal price impact — any volatility would likely be limited to speculative positioning or headlines-driven noise. Over the long term, the report underscores a structural risk that could shift sentiment if a credible quantum breakthrough occurs; in that scenario, markets would reprice BTC based on perceived protocol vulnerability and the feasibility/timeliness of quantum-resistant upgrades. For now, because timelines are measured in years and remediation paths exist without immediate consensus-breaking changes, the overall market effect is neutral.