U.S. House GOP Proposes Insider Trading Ban on Prediction Markets

U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) introduced the “Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act,” aiming to curb alleged insider trading in prediction markets. The bill would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on policy outcomes, government actions, or election results on prediction-market platforms. The proposal frames such conduct as insider trading that undermines public trust. If convicted, violators could face a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager value (whichever is higher), plus any profits. Payments using official office funds, taxpayer allowances, or campaign donations would be prohibited; non-payment could trigger civil enforcement via the Justice Department. The move follows broader federal pressure on platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, including a Senate resolution restricting its own members/staff and House Oversight investigations. It also comes after a high-profile case: U.S. Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, accused of using classified military intelligence to win Polymarket bets tied to January’s removal of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. He pleaded not guilty, and a December trial date was reported. For crypto traders, this is a signal of tighter U.S. regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, especially when insider trading allegations emerge. While it’s not a direct token catalyst, increased enforcement risk can raise volatility in crypto-adjacent sentiment around market-structure regulation.