US lawmakers dey draft ban wey go stop prediction markets for officials

US Republican Rep. Bryan Steil dey draft bill wey go expand congressional trading ban to include prediction markets. Di proposal go forbid lawmakers, dia staff (and for related coverage, spouses/dependents) from betting on electoral and political outcomes for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Di idea na to reduce insider-benefit risk wey fit come from political influence, and e go add advance disclosure and penalties if dem tie di rules to existing stock-trading restrictions. Dis development dey come as scrutiny dey increase. Since Jan 2026, pass ten prediction-market/insider-trading bills don dey introduced. For May 2026, Senate Commerce Committee hold hearings wey dem question whether prediction markets be more like gambling than proper price discovery. Traders suppose watch whether Steil’s language on prediction markets fit "attach" to the existing stock-trading restriction to quicken House vote. Any faster legislative move fit raise near-term uncertainty for US-facing listings and reduce risk appetite for prediction-contract activity. Long-term market impact go depend on whether contracts get reclassified and how enforcement go apply to US platforms—especially Kalshi, wey dem report say hold about 89% of the regulated US market share as of April 2026. Key platforms for focus: Kalshi (most exposed) and Polymarket (decentralized, fit harder to regulate directly but still likely to face broader oversight).