Copper Supply Shortfalls and Rising Project Costs Dominate Miner Outlook

Copper supply constraints and the rising cost of new mines were central themes at Goldman Sachs’ Global Metals and Mining Conference in London on 21 October 2026. Speakers said expected copper supply growth of 3 million tonnes in 2025–26 had delivered only about 700,000 tonnes, while more than 1.5 million tonnes had been drawn into US inventories amid tariff-related stockpiling. They cited declining ore grades, long permitting timelines and greenfield capital costs above $30,000 per tonne as barriers to new supply. Executives from First Quantum, Lundin Mining, Teck Resources, Antofagasta, Freeport-McMoRan and Ivanhoe Mines described plans to expand production mainly through existing assets, partnerships and technology. First Quantum said a potential restart of Cobre Panamá remains subject to a formal agreement; it is advancing Taca Taca but ties a final investment decision to improved balance-sheet capacity. Lundin is targeting a year-end decision on Vicuna’s first phase, with capital costs still under review. Teck highlighted potential growth from combining Quebrada Blanca and Collahuasi, while Antofagasta expects its Centinela expansion to reach full capacity in 2028. Freeport is testing leach technologies to increase output from existing operations. Ivanhoe is revising Kamoa-Kakula’s mine plan after disruption and maintains a long-term production target above 500,000 tonnes of copper a year. Across the discussions, executives said scarce, difficult-to-develop supply—not simply stronger end-user demand—is driving tight copper market conditions. For traders, the outlook points to persistent supply-side price support, but project delays, operating risks and inventory shifts may drive volatility.