Bitcoin’s Correlation With Gold and US Treasuries Reaches Historic Lows Amid Institutional Rotation Into Crypto
Bitcoin’s correlation with both gold and US 10-Year Treasury futures has recently dropped to historic lows, highlighting a dramatic shift in investor strategy. Market data shows Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with gold plummeting to -0.54, the lowest since February 2025, while its 60-day correlation with US Treasuries also hit a record low. Historically, such a de-correlation period has coincided with Bitcoin price surges and diminished performance in traditional safe-haven assets.
Concurrently, exchange reserves have fallen to new all-time lows, with only 2.43 million BTC held on exchanges, suggesting heightened investor confidence and a strong preference for holding over selling. On-chain data also shows sustained negative exchange netflows and cooling whale activity, indicating long-term accumulation strategies among large holders.
Additionally, as US Treasury yields experience volatility and gold underperforms, institutional and retail investors are increasingly considering Bitcoin as an alternative store of value and potential hedge against economic uncertainty. This asset rotation signals growing momentum for Bitcoin, underscoring its emerging role as a distinct asset class.
For crypto traders, these developments suggest a market environment primed for increased trading opportunities and continued upward price momentum—particularly as cross-asset correlations break down and capital rotates out of traditional safe-havens and into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Bullish
The news signals a marked bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The historic decoupling from both gold and US Treasuries, supported by sharply declining on-exchange BTC reserves, sustained negative exchange netflows, and subdued whale trading, all point to strong investor confidence and a clear shift toward long-term holding over selling. Institutional and retail investors appear to be reallocating capital into Bitcoin as traditional safe-haven assets face volatility and underperformance. Historically, similar periods of decreasing cross-asset correlation have led to significant price surges for Bitcoin. The confluence of these trends sets the stage for upward momentum and increased market activity, benefiting traders who capitalize on such cross-asset rotations.