Benjamin Cowen: Precious Metals Likely to Outperform Crypto in 2025, but Correction Risk Looms
Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, warns that precious metals (notably gold and silver) are poised to outperform cryptocurrencies in 2025, extending a trend that began in 2024. Cowen’s data-driven framework—combining macro indicators, multi-timeframe technicals and crypto-specific metrics—supports the view that central bank gold buying, geopolitical safe-haven demand and differing interest-rate impacts favor precious metals. He also cautions about a possible significant correction in precious metals later in 2025 that could coincide with or precede sharper crypto declines due to rising cross-asset correlations. Practical trader takeaways: favour evidence-based position sizing, tighten risk management, and reassess diversification if correlations rise. Key drivers to watch include central bank reserves, dollar strength, interest-rate expectations, precious metals volatility, regulatory developments, and institutional crypto positioning. The analysis is probabilistic rather than definitive and recommends trading the market that exists rather than desired outcomes.
Neutral
Cowen’s note is primarily observational and risk-focused rather than forecasting a definitive collapse or surge in crypto prices. The prediction that precious metals may outperform crypto in 2025 is bullish for metals and relatively bearish for crypto allocation performance, but the simultaneous correction risk he highlights increases short-term uncertainty. Traders are likely to respond by reducing directional crypto risk, raising cash or hedging, and increasing exposure to gold/silver or safe-haven instruments — moves that can pressure crypto prices in the short term (bearish effect). Historically, similar patterns occurred when rising geopolitical risk and central-bank gold purchases shifted capital into metals (e.g., parts of 2020–2024), producing outperformance for gold while crypto experienced elevated volatility. Over the medium to long term, the impact depends on macro trends: if inflation expectations and central-bank policies continue to favor real assets, metals may sustain outperformance; if regulatory clarity and institutional crypto adoption accelerate, crypto could regain leadership. Therefore, the immediate market reaction is likely cautious to negative for crypto (reduced risk appetite, higher volatility), but the longer-term direction remains contingent on macro drivers and regulatory developments.