US CPI cools, Bitcoin jumps, but April Fed rate cuts still unlikely

Published: 2026-04-10 16:34:54 |

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported March CPI: headline CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, slightly below expectations but still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Energy prices drove the print, with an ~11% energy increase (gasoline +21.2%) linked to heightened geopolitical risk. Crypto traders are focusing on Federal Reserve timing. CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows a 0% chance of a rate cut at the April FOMC meeting, with the odds of holding rates at 98.4%. Rate-cut expectations only rise marginally later in the year, while FOMC members remain split and even rate hikes have not been ruled out. Bitcoin responded positively: BTC rose more than 1.5% after the CPI release, briefly testing the $73,000 area. Analysts at 21Shares cited the $73,000–$75,000 zone as the next major target; a BTC break above it could trigger consolidation before a move toward $80,000. They also tied a potential $100,000 BTC scenario to legislative progress (Clarity Act).

Neutral

Although the US CPI print was slightly cooler than expected and Bitcoin initially benefited, the Fed’s near-term easing outlook remains effectively closed. FedWatch showing 0% odds for an April rate cut (98.4% hold probability) suggests tighter-for-longer conditions, which historically caps crypto upside and keeps volatility elevated. In past CPI-driven FOMC expectation shifts, crypto often spikes on “less bad” inflation, but then retraces if traders conclude rate cuts are delayed. Short term: BTC’s bounce toward the $73k–$75k zone fits a typical risk-on reaction to softer inflation prints. However, the lack of April easing can quickly switch flows back to hedging and profit-taking, limiting follow-through. Long term: If later-in-year odds gradually improve, that would support sustained liquidity and a broader crypto bid. But geopolitical energy-driven inflation risks mean the Fed could stay cautious, making longer-term direction more dependent on subsequent inflation releases and rate-path repricing.