Crypto bottom don show, but recession and geopolitics dey keep Coinbase neutral

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode talk say one “crypto bottom” fit dey form, but recession risk and geopolitics dey stop any big risk-on move. For their joint 2Q26 report dem set stance to “neutral,” because plenty uncertainty dey and dem no get strong confidence for short-term positioning. Macro na be the swing factor. IMF cut 2026 global growth to 3.1%, and Oxford Economics warn say if serious recession happen GDP growth fit fall go 1.4%. Coinbase still flag risks for Middle East and energy markets wey fit quickly override crypto-native catalysts like regulatory progress and growth of agentic AI. Still, stabilisation signals dey improve if geopolitics no worse. On-chain, Bitcoin MVRV show an “accumulation zone,” long-term holders (over 155 days) dey add not sell, and Q1 short-term speculative supply drop 37%. Ethereum NUPL shift from “capitulation” for February to “Hope” by late March. Liquidity too look supportive: total stablecoin supply rise from about $308B to $318B in Q1, meaning traders dey park value inside stablecoins rather than fully exit—fuel for rebound if conditions better. Investor survey (91 respondents) show mismatch: 82% still see market as bear/late-bear, but ~75% think BTC dey undervalued. For traders, this support dip-buying stories around the crypto bottom, but e no yet clear confirmation to add aggressive risk.