Analyst: 2026 Could Be the Crypto Bull Run Delayed from 2025
Market analyst Lark Davis argues the crypto bull run expected in 2025 was delayed and that 2026 is a more probable inflection point. Davis cites weak 2025 macro signals — notably a prolonged contraction in US manufacturing (ISM PMI at 48.2 in November, nine months of contraction, new orders in the mid-47s, employment near 44) — which kept sentiment pessimistic despite an AI-driven tech boom. He highlights large AI-related capital expenditure as a structural catalyst for 2026: US data-center spending exceeded $400 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach ~$600 billion in 2026 and >$700 billion by 2027, with over 2,000 new global data centers expected by 2030 and roughly $7 trillion in infrastructure spending over five years. Improved liquidity is anticipated as the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening and resumes balance-sheet operations around $40 billion monthly, while analysts forecast ~14% S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026. Davis concludes that manufacturing recovery, heavy AI infrastructure investment, and easier monetary policy could jointly create a stronger, bullish setup in 2026. Key names and figures: Lark Davis; ISM manufacturing PMI 48.2; US data-center spend $400B (2025) → ~$600B (2026); Fed balance-sheet ops ~$40B/month; S&P 500 earnings growth ~14% (2026 forecast).
Bullish
The article frames 2026 as a likely bullish inflection driven by large-scale, durable catalysts rather than transient sentiment. Key bullish drivers: substantial AI-driven capex (data-center and hardware spending rising from $400B in 2025 to ~$600B in 2026), anticipated improvement in liquidity as the Fed ends quantitative tightening and resumes ~$40B/month balance-sheet operations, and projections of ~14% S&P 500 earnings growth. These factors mirror past macro-driven crypto rallies where easier monetary policy and strong tech investment coincided with price appreciation (e.g., 2020–21 post-QE periods). Short-term impact: mixed — persistent manufacturing weakness and skeptical sentiment may keep volatility and capricious price action in 2025–early 2026, limiting sustained rallies and favoring ranges and pullbacks. Long-term impact: structural bullish — sustained AI infrastructure spending and easier liquidity improve risk appetite and capital flows into tech and crypto, increasing probability of a broad market rally in 2026. Traders should watch data-center capex announcements, Fed policy signals (QT end and balance-sheet purchases), ISM PMI and employment data, and institutional flows into crypto products. Risk factors include slower-than-expected capex rollout, renewed Fed tightening, or geopolitical shocks that could delay or negate the bullish thesis.