Prediction markets form national coalition as Kalshi, Crypto.com, Coinbase push for federal oversight
Major prediction market firms — Kalshi, Crypto.com, Coinbase, Robinhood and Underdog — have launched the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM) to press for clear federal oversight and uniform integrity standards. Led publicly by Kalshi and Crypto.com, the coalition seeks CFTC-style treatment to prevent insider trading, protect consumers and block state actions that treat prediction markets as gambling. CPM says it will set operating standards, engage policymakers and educate the public to attract institutional capital and reduce regulatory fragmentation. The move follows a recent Kalshi legal win: a temporary federal injunction in Connecticut suspending state enforcement until hearings in early 2026, which the industry cites as precedent for federal jurisdiction. CPM spokespeople (including Kalshi’s Sara Slane and board member Matt David) argue federal regulation will create legitimacy and consistent rules from day one. For traders, the coalition could mean faster standardization, higher institutional participation and clearer compliance requirements — developments that may increase liquidity and reduce jurisdictional legal risk for prediction-market–linked tokens and platforms.
Neutral
The formation of the Coalition for Prediction Markets and Kalshi’s temporary federal injunction are structural and regulatory developments rather than immediate market-moving events tied to a specific token. For the short term, the news is likely neutral: it reduces legal uncertainty but does not directly create demand pressure on any specific cryptocurrency. Traders may see modest improvements in perceived regulatory risk, which can stabilize sentiment for platforms and any associated tokens, but price moves should be limited until concrete rule-making or large institutional capital inflows occur. Over the medium to long term, clearer federal rules and industry standards could be bullish for prediction-market platforms by improving liquidity, enabling institutional participation and lowering compliance costs; however, these benefits depend on the final shape of regulation (e.g., whether platforms are treated like exchanges under the CFTC). Therefore, immediate price impact is limited, while the long-term direction depends on regulatory outcomes and capital flows.