Crypto.com spins off US-only prediction market app OG to take on Polymarket and Kalshi
Crypto.com has separated its prediction-market business into a standalone, US-only app called OG, built on infrastructure from Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse. The move follows rapid growth: Crypto.com reported a 40x increase in weekly activity in its prediction markets over the past six months. OG is led by Nick Lundgren (Crypto.com’s chief legal officer and OG CEO) and publicly supported by CEO Kris Marszalek. The platform joins a competitive US market that includes Polymarket and Kalshi (the latter now partnered with Coinbase). Industry data cited rapid expansion in volumes—from under $100m monthly in early 2024 to over $13bn by late 2025—and combined 2025 trading of $37bn for Polymarket and Kalshi; analysts project prediction-market–related revenues could rise from roughly $2bn today toward $10bn+ by 2030. For traders: OG’s launch increases event-driven liquidity and competition in regulated US prediction contracts and may create short-term trading and arbitrage opportunities. Key trading considerations are initial liquidity and market depth, fee structure, precise CFTC compliance and rulebook details, and any token or incentive mechanics OG introduces—these factors will determine spreads, arbitrage potential, and the platform’s ability to attract sustained volume.
Neutral
The news is neutral for crypto-asset prices because it concerns a product launch and market expansion rather than changes to a protocol token or monetary policy. OG’s US-only launch and CDNA’s CFTC registration reduce regulatory uncertainty for event contracts, which can boost trading activity and liquidity in prediction markets. In the short term, traders may see increased volatility within event-contract prices and pockets of arbitrage as liquidity and fee structures are established on OG versus incumbents (potentially creating trading opportunities). In the medium to long term, sustained growth depends on OG’s ability to attract volume through competitive fees, deep order books, and clear CFTC-compliant rules—if successful, that would be positive for platforms and trading volumes but not directly bullish for any specific cryptocurrency mentioned in the articles. Risks that keep the view neutral include potential slow initial liquidity, restrictive product listings (US-only limits), or regulatory frictions that could constrain volume growth. Overall, the item is market-structure positive but does not imply a direct price catalyst for a particular crypto asset.