Crypto Crash: Total3 Drops to $713B, BTC Retests $68K Support
The crypto market has retraced roughly 40% from its October 2025 peak. Total3 Market Cap (altcoin-heavy market cap excluding BTC and ETH) fell from a November–October rally high (~$1.19T) to about $713B as of Feb 21, 2026 — near early-November 2024 levels. Bitcoin dropped about 50% from its peak, bottomed near $60K and has recovered marginally to roughly $68K; ETH lost about 60% from its August 2025 high. Key drivers cited are macro pressures (interest-rate hikes), the bursting of the altcoin bubble, and falling retail sentiment (CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index 14, with a 5 low on Feb 5). Despite retail fear, institutional flows into US spot BTC ETFs continued, with the 12 spot ETFs recording net inflows during the shortened week of Feb 20. Technicals: BTC around $68.2K, RSI ~39 (near oversold), Supertrend bearish; critical support at $67.9K (S1) and $64.5K (S2); resistance at $69.4K (R1) and $71K (R2). Analysts flag a BTC-led recovery scenario if BTC closes above the EMA20 (~$71K); if S1 breaks, $64K may be tested. Recommendation: potential buying opportunity for long-term holders but expect high short-term volatility. This is not investment advice.
Bearish
The article describes a broad market decline: Total3 (altcoin market cap excluding BTC/ETH) has collapsed ~40% from the rally peak to $713B, BTC dropped about 50% from its peak and is trading near important supports. Macro headwinds (rate hikes), the bursting of an altcoin bubble, and extremely low retail sentiment (Fear & Greed Index near historic lows) point toward continued downside pressure and high volatility. Although institutional flows into spot BTC ETFs signal accumulation by long-term allocators, such flows have historically provided support rather than immediate bullish reversals during bear phases. Technical indicators (RSI near oversold, Supertrend bearish, EMA20 resistance) and the proximity to key support levels ($67.9K and $64.5K) suggest risk of further tests of support before a sustainable recovery. Comparable episodes: the 2022 bear market where extreme fear coincided with institutional buying but prices still retested lows. Short-term implication: elevated volatility, potential short-term rebounds on ETF inflows but with downside risk if supports fail. Long-term implication: a BTC-led recovery is possible once macro pressure eases and BTC sustains above EMA20/71K, but altcoins (Total3) likely lag in any recovery. Overall market bias is bearish until clear technical and macro improvements appear.