Crypto market falls as gold and crude oil rally amid Iran attack fears
The crypto market sold off on Jan. 29 as gold and crude oil prices jumped amid rising odds of a US attack on Iran. Bitcoin fell from a year-to-date high of about $94,000 to roughly $87,000 (down ~3–4%), while Ethereum slipped toward $2,930 and BNB moved near $890. Total crypto market capitalization dropped to just over $2.8 trillion. Top 24‑hour losers included CHZ, RIVER, RNDR, MNT and ZRO (each down more than 7%). Precious metals and oil rallied — gold has seen double-digit gains this year driven by ETF inflows, and Brent crude topped $70, up nearly 20% from its recent low. Political risk rose after markets priced more than 70% odds (per Polymarket) of a US attack on Iran this year following statements from former President Trump. Traders interpreted the episode as another instance where Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies behaved as risk assets rather than safe havens, prompting rotation into gold and oil. Key takeaways for traders: rising geopolitical risk can drive short-term crypto weakness and rotate capital into commodities; watch BTC support near mid‑$80k, ETH near $2.9k, and macro headlines (Middle East developments, ETF flows into gold, oil price moves) for near-term directional cues.
Bearish
This development is bearish for crypto in the short term. Rising geopolitical risk (heightened odds of a US attack on Iran) has driven a classic risk-off reaction: investors rotated capital from risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins into perceived safe or hard-asset havens such as gold and oil. Price moves — BTC down ~3–4%, ETH down ~4–5%, and several altcoins down >7% — show broad selling pressure. Similar episodes (e.g., prior geopolitical shocks and tariff threats) have produced immediate crypto weakness followed by consolidation; BTC historically has not consistently performed as a safe haven. For traders, expect elevated volatility: short-term downside pressure and potential continued outflows while headlines remain negative. Key actionable points: (1) short-term bias: bearish — monitor for breakdowns below BTC mid‑$80k and ETH ~$2.9k; (2) intraday/short-term trades: consider hedges, reduce leverage, or use mean-reversion scalps if capitulation signs appear; (3) medium/long-term: fundamentals unchanged — strategic bulls may view pullbacks as accumulation opportunities if macro risks subside, but persistent geopolitical escalation could prolong underperformance relative to commodities.