Crypto: Flows vs Fundamentals, DATs & Prediction Risks
Byron Gilliam explores how crypto investing increasingly balances fundamentals-driven and flows-driven strategies. Crypto investor Jon Charbonneau argues that assessing future cash flows (fundamental investing) contrasts with relying on market trading flows. Bitcoin’s straightforward flows thesis and Ethereum’s hybrid profile illustrate this divide. Charbonneau predicts a shift toward fundamentals as the industry matures, citing digital asset treasury (DAT) firms and decline in narrative trading. Luca Netz supports revenue-focused success over speculative valuations. The piece highlights profit for short-seller Jim Chanos as MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares fall, lowering mNAV to 1.34x, and compares Ethereum DAT products BTCS (0.65x NAV) and BMNR (1.35x NAV), and Japan’s Metaplanet trading at 1.95x NAV. Finally, trader-philosopher Agustin Lebron critiques prediction markets as zero-sum ecosystems that may distort outcomes. Overall, the article signals a broader shift in crypto investing toward fundamentals, challenges in flows-based strategies, and potential risks from prediction market distortions.
Neutral
While the article outlines an industry-wide shift from flows-based speculative trading toward fundamentals-driven investment, it does not present an immediate bullish or bearish catalyst for prices. Highlighting the decline in MicroStrategy’s mNAV and risks in prediction markets may introduce short-term caution, but the emphasis on stronger fundamentals and revenue-driven models supports longer-term market stability. Similar historical transitions, such as the move from ICO hype to DeFi utility, tended to have neutral to mildly positive effects by reducing volatility without triggering sharp rallies or sell-offs. Therefore, this news is likely to yield a neutral market impact, guiding traders to focus on project fundamentals rather than speculative flows.