April crypto hacks top $625M; ETH $4,000 odds slip, BTC targets fade

Published: 2026-05-01 15:29:22 |

Crypto hacks surge in April, with losses concentrated in North Korean–linked groups, especially Lazarus Group, blamed for about 75%–76% of the stolen funds. Reported incidents include a $285M exploit on Drift Protocol and a $293M breach on KelpDAO, taking total theft to over $625M across nearly 30 attacks. Crypto hacks are also showing up in prediction markets as confidence fades. The probability that Ethereum reaches $4,000 in late April is priced at 0.1% (down from 1% the day before). For Bitcoin, the chance of hitting $94,000 for April 27–May 3 is also 0.1% and unchanged. A separate Bitcoin contract for April 30 (range $70,000–$72,000) sits at 100% YES. Traders may treat this as bearish tail-risk pricing. The news also shifts the narrative toward more sophisticated attack techniques, including AI-assisted methods that could stress DeFi defenses. Watch for regulatory responses to cyber threats and any DeFi security upgrades that might restore confidence. Keywords: crypto hacks, Ethereum, Bitcoin, DeFi security, prediction markets.

Bearish

April crypto hacks are heavily concentrated among state-linked actors (Lazarus Group) and are associated with large, high-profile DeFi incidents. That concentration can keep tail risk elevated and weigh on risk appetite. The prediction-market moves reinforce this: ETH’s odds of reaching $4,000 fall to 0.1%, and BTC’s $94,000 target probability also sits at 0.1% (no improvement). Even with a high-odds BTC contract for a narrower April 30 range, the broader upside targets fade, implying traders are positioning for lower-price outcomes. In the short term, this can support defensive positioning, wider hedging demand, and rotation away from higher-risk DeFi exposure. In the long run, sustained security incidents may trigger regulatory scrutiny and force protocol-level upgrades; however, until credible patches restore confidence, markets may continue to price downside and slower growth. Overall, crypto hacks in April appear to be bearish for the price prospects of ETH and BTC.