JPMorgan: Crypto inflows plunge in Q1 2026 to $11B; ETF outflows and CME weaken

JPMorgan estimates crypto inflows slowed sharply in Q1 2026 to about $11B—roughly one-third of the Q1 2025 pace. Annualized flows imply around $44B versus $130B last year, with the key issue shifting from a simple “cool-off” to narrower participation and more concentrated demand. In JPMorgan’s framework, crypto inflows include purchases of crypto funds, CME futures activity, venture capital, and corporate treasury buying. CME futures positioning suggests institutional demand has turned negative versus the prior two years. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw persistent outflows, with weakness most evident in January; a modest BTC ETF recovery in March was not enough to reverse the earlier decline. Corporate demand remained the main support, led by Strategy (Michael Saylor) continuing to accumulate Bitcoin via equity issuance. But the broader picture is mixed: some smaller firms reduced holdings for buybacks and balance-sheet strength, while mining companies increased selling and/or used Bitcoin as loan collateral and redirected capital toward AI infrastructure. Venture capital stayed relatively resilient on an annualized basis, but deal participation narrowed and capital concentrated in larger rounds. For crypto traders, this setup points to weaker crypto inflows and less diversified demand heading into 2026—conditions that can translate into choppier liquidity and a higher likelihood of consolidation rather than sustained upside momentum. Watch BTC/ETH spot ETF flow persistence and CME futures positioning for near-term confirmation of whether the decline stabilizes or worsens.