Crypto Braces for ‘Red September’; Bitcoin & Ethereum Steady
Crypto markets face heightened volatility as September starts, a month historically marked by an average 3.77% decline in Bitcoin prices since 2013, earning the nickname “Red September”. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged from 75 in mid-August to 46, signaling deepening anxiety. Bitcoin remains above crucial $108,000 support, but with an Average Directional Index of 20 and a Relative Strength Index at 40, technical indicators point to directionless trading and growing selling pressure. Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA is closing in on the 200-day EMA, raising the risk of a bearish “death cross”. Market attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s September 16-17 meeting, with an 87% implied probability of a quarter-point rate cut. Prediction markets on Myriad now assign a 75% chance of Bitcoin dipping to $105,000, a sharp reversal from earlier bullish forecasts. Traders should monitor macroeconomic signals and technical levels as crypto braces for seasonal pressure.
Bearish
The outlook is bearish given historical patterns and current indicators. Historically, September has seen average Bitcoin declines of 3.77% since 2013, signaling persistent seasonal weakness. The sharp drop in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to 46 highlights heightened trader anxiety. Technical metrics—ADX at 20, RSI at 40, and the narrowing gap between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs—foreshadow increased volatility and the potential for a “death cross”, a classic bearish signal. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting adds macroeconomic risk. Similar past episodes, such as the mid-June sell-off tied to Fed commentary, led to steep drawdowns across crypto assets. In the short term, traders may face downward pressure as selling intensifies against $108,000 support. Over the longer term, a rate cut could provide relief, but until the Fed’s decision and data confirm easing, bearish sentiment is likely to prevail.