Crypto Tokens: Two Paths to Long-Term Value
Brevan Howard Digital investor Tze Donn Ng argues that durable crypto tokens generally follow one of two paths: strong community belief or verifiable cash flow shared with token holders. Bitcoin, Zcash and Hyperliquid illustrate the belief-driven model, built on distinctive narratives, committed communities and survival through crises. Hyperliquid also exemplifies the cash-flow model, alongside LIT, PUMP and SKY, where protocol profits can support buybacks or distributions.
Ng says traders should assess whether revenue is sustainable and verifiable on-chain, whether equity entities divert value, and whether token buybacks or dividends are automatic. Projects that retain profits for growth require holders to trust that the value will eventually accrue to the token. He contrasts this with SHFL, whose underlying gambling business revenue goes to a private company rather than its token holders.
The article views cash-flow tokens as an emerging market category and flags potential developments such as a token from Polymarket, a fully on-chain Shuffle casino, and new perpetual DEX tokens including VAR and XTEN. For traders, the framework highlights token economics, revenue quality and value capture as key factors when evaluating long-term crypto investments; it is an analytical thesis, not a market-moving announcement.
Neutral
The article presents an investor’s framework for assessing token durability; it does not report a new protocol launch, regulatory decision or material change in token supply. Its direct market impact is therefore likely limited, with short-term trading reactions more likely to be selective and concentrated in the named assets, especially HYPE, PUMP, LIT and SKY.
The thesis could still shape longer-term investor preferences. Traders may increasingly favor tokens with transparent on-chain revenue, credible buybacks or distributions, and clear rights to protocol value, while discounting projects whose profits accrue to private equity companies or depend on unverified promises of future growth. This resembles past market rotations toward DeFi protocols with visible fees and token-holder incentives, although such models have not guaranteed sustained price appreciation: revenue can fall, buybacks may be insufficient, and token supply or governance risks can offset cash flows.
The belief-asset argument also highlights the role of community and resilience, but those qualities are difficult to measure and can weaken during market downturns. Overall, the piece is a valuation framework rather than a catalyst. It may influence due diligence and relative performance over time, but broad market direction will still depend more on liquidity, risk appetite, Bitcoin trends and actual protocol revenue than on the article itself.