Crypto Winter: Yusko Predicts Mild Bitcoin Bear Market
In a recent Cointelegraph interview, Morgan Creek Capital founder Mark Yusko declared that we’ve officially entered a Bitcoin bear market, marking the onset of a crypto winter. Using network-based models like Metcalfe’s Law, he argues that Bitcoin’s peak was only modestly above its $93,220 fair value, suggesting any correction may be milder than in 2018 or 2022. Still, downward pressures are mounting: new buyer activity is slowing, OG wallets are taking profits, and futures markets could cap rallies and accelerate declines. Despite short-term volatility, Yusko points to long-term tailwinds such as reduced leverage, growing institutional adoption, a supportive macro environment and the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies. He situates Bitcoin within the “then they fight you” phase of technological adoption, where incumbents resist DeFi. Yusko offers guidance on navigating the current bear market and outlines why the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains strong over the next decade.
Bearish
Yusko’s declaration of an official Bitcoin bear market and the outlined downward pressures—slowing new buyer inflows, profit-taking by OG wallets and futures market headwinds—signal a bearish outlook in the near term. Historical parallels with the 2018 and 2022 bear markets underscore similar profit-taking and leverage unwinds, although this cycle may be milder due to modest overshoot of fair value. In the short term, traders should brace for continued volatility and potential declines. However, the presence of long-term tailwinds—reduced leverage, institutional adoption and macro support—suggests resilience beyond the immediate bear market.