CryptoQuant: Bitcoin’s ’ultimate bottom’ near $55,000 — bear market may take months
CryptoQuant’s on-chain report says Bitcoin has not yet formed a durable bottom and estimates the cycle “ultimate bottom” near $55,000 (the realized price). Spot BTC is roughly 25% above that realized-price level, and historical bear cycles show price often falls below realized price and then spends 4–6 months consolidating before a multi-month bottom completes. Key on-chain signals have not reached capitulation ranges: MVRV (~1.13), NUPL (~0.18), profitable supply (~55% in profit vs. cycle lows of 45–50%), long-term holder selling (near breakeven rather than 30–40% losses), and CryptoQuant’s bull–bear cycle indicator (in Bear Phase but not Extreme Bear). The report flagged a record single-day realized loss of $5.4 billion on Feb 5 (price slide to ~ $62k), but monthly cumulative realized losses (~300k BTC) are far below the ~1.1M BTC seen at the 2022 low. CryptoQuant warns that recent corrections and elevated realized losses imply the structural bottom is not yet in place and that a durable bottom historically requires months of consolidation rather than a quick V-shaped recovery. The firm also notes other institutions’ deeper downside forecasts (e.g., Standard Chartered: BTC to $50k, ETH to $1,400) but emphasizes current on-chain metrics argue the final capitulation zone hasn’t been reached. Traders should watch the realized price (~$55k), realized-loss flows, MVRV/NUPL, long-term-holder behavior, and the bull–bear indicator for signs of capitulation or extended sideways action. This is informational and not investment advice.
Bearish
CryptoQuant’s findings point to incomplete capitulation and the potential for further downside or prolonged sideways trading for BTC. The realized price (~$55k) serves as a structural reference; spot remains ~25% above it, and several valuation and sentiment indicators (MVRV, NUPL, profitable supply, long-term holder selling, bull–bear cycle) have not reached historical troughs that historically coincide with price bottoms. A recent spike in single-day realized losses ($5.4B) signals notable selling pressure, but monthly realized-loss volumes remain well below 2022 levels, indicating capitulation has not yet matched prior bottoms. Historically, when price falls below realized price, markets undergo 4–6 months of consolidation before a stable bottom forms, increasing the likelihood of extended volatility and sideways action rather than an immediate rebound. For traders, this suggests a higher risk of further drawdowns or range-bound trading over the coming months; risk-managed strategies, layered entries around realized-price levels, and monitoring of on-chain capitulation signals are prudent. Overall, the near-term price bias is bearish until on-chain indicators move into historical bottom ranges or clear capitulation signals appear.