CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Confirmed in Bear Market; Potential Bottom $56k–$60k
CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno says a cluster of on-chain and technical indicators signaled in early November that Bitcoin (BTC) entered a bear market and have not recovered. The firm’s bull/bear index — which tracks network activity, investor profitability, demand and liquidity — turned bearish across most components and BTC fell below its 12-month (one-year) moving average, a key long-term technical confirmation. Bitcoin peaked near $126,080 in October 2025 and traded around $88,500 when the signal was noted. Using realized price and historical drawdown patterns, Moreno projects a likely bear-market bottom around $56,000–$60,000 within the next year (about a 55% drop from the all-time high). He argues this cycle may be structurally different and milder than prior crashes because there have been no major systemic failures and institutional flows — notably ETFs and long-term allocators — continue to provide steady demand, which could limit forced selling. For traders, the takeaways are: expect continued volatility, monitor the one-year moving average and realized price levels, adjust position sizing and stop-loss strategies for a potentially shallower but protracted drawdown, and track ETF/institutional flows as they may dampen downside or create buying opportunities.
Bearish
Indicators cited by CryptoQuant (bull/bear index, one-year moving average, realized price) constitute classic technical and on-chain confirmations of a bearish regime for BTC. The one-year moving average breach signals a shift in long-term trend, while the bull score turning negative across network activity, profitability, demand and liquidity implies reduced buying pressure and increased downside risk. Moreno’s projected bottom of $56k–$60k (≈55% drawdown from the ATH) points to meaningful near- to medium-term downside. Although institutional flows and ETF accumulation may soften the fall relative to past cycles and reduce the risk of cascade liquidations, they do not negate the prevailing bearish technical structure. For traders, this news implies heightened short-term volatility and downside bias: lower highs and support tests are likely, warranting tighter risk controls, smaller position sizes, defensive stop placements, and selective buying on confirmed accumulation signals rather than early broad exposure.