CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Bear Market Has Begun — Price Could Drop to $70k–$55k
CryptoQuant analysts say the Bitcoin bear market began in early November and warn that if it continues BTC could trade between $70,000 and $55,000 next year, with $55,000 as the most bearish scenario. The firm highlights that major institutional holder Strategy (led by figures including Michael Saylor) established a roughly $1.44 billion cash reserve in US dollars this week to cover dividends and debt interest. CryptoQuant’s research head Julio Moreno interprets the US dollar reserve as a high-probability signal of potential BTC sales, though he notes sales would be a last resort and Strategy would prefer using Bitcoin derivatives. Strategy’s CFO Andrew Kang states the USD reserve is a liquidity risk-management tool that would be used when mNAV>1, and at current BTC levels (~$93,500) the company could sustain operations and dividends for over three years without selling. Key points for traders: potential increased selling pressure if institutional holders tap USD reserves, CryptoQuant’s bearish price band ($70k–$55k), emphasis on derivatives use over spot sales, and the signal that institutional risk-management is shifting toward cash hedges.
Bearish
CryptoQuant’s statement and on-chain observation of a $1.44B USD reserve by a major institutional holder signal increased risk of spot selling if market conditions deteriorate. Historically, large institutional reserve builds or cash reallocations (or forced liquidations) have preceded periods of downward pressure on BTC prices as holders either sell spot or deleverage via exchanges. Although Strategy says sales are a last resort and prefers derivatives hedging, the existence of a sizable fiat buffer reduces the friction for eventual exits and can embolden defensive selling during volatility. Short-term impact: elevated downside risk and volatility around key levels as traders price in possible institutional sales and derivative positioning changes. Watch order books, funding rates, and large on-chain transfers. Long-term impact: if institutions increasingly use dual-reserve models (USD+BTC) it could lead to more frequent tactical selling during stress events, increasing correlation with macro risk-off episodes. Overall, the immediate market implication is bearish — traders should manage positions, tighten stops, and monitor institutional flows and derivatives markets for early signals.