CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Demand Rolls Over — Spot ETFs Turn Net Sellers, Bear Market Signs Emerging
CryptoQuant data show Bitcoin demand has weakened since October 2025, marking the start of a potential bear market. The analytics firm says three major spot-demand waves that drove 2025’s rally — heavy U.S. spot ETF inflows, corporate treasury buying and election-driven optimism — have rolled over. In Q4 2025 U.S. spot ETFs became net sellers, trimming roughly 24,000 BTC (~$2.12bn) of holdings. On-chain signs of waning demand include slower accumulation among large wallets (100–1,000 BTC), sharply reduced corporate treasury purchases, falling open interest and funding rates at their lowest since December 2023. Technical structure has weakened: BTC slipped below its 365‑day moving average, trading near $88,000 in late December, roughly 30% below October peaks. CryptoQuant flags realized-price support near $56,000 and sets intermediate support around $70,000 — implying a potential ~50–55% drawdown from recent highs if selling persists. For traders: expect reduced institutional bid, lower derivatives risk appetite, elevated volatility and cautious positioning. Key levels to watch are the 365‑day MA, $70k interim support and the realized-price floor (~$56k).
Bearish
The combined reports point to a deterioration in both fundamental demand and technical market structure for BTC. Key drivers: U.S. spot ETFs shifted from net buyers to net sellers in Q4 (cutting ~24,000 BTC), corporate treasury buys and large-wallet accumulation slowed, and derivatives indicators (open interest and funding rates) fell to multi-month lows. Price action confirms weakening: BTC dropped below the 365‑day moving average and traded about 30% below October peaks, with CryptoQuant identifying intermediate support at ~$70k and deeper realized-price support near ~$56k. Short-term impact: increased selling pressure, higher volatility, and compressed leverage use in derivatives, so price risks remain to the downside. Traders should reduce directional long exposure, tighten stops, consider hedges or volatility strategies, and monitor ETF flows, funding rates and the 365‑day MA for signs of capitulation or recovery. Medium-to-long term: if institutional demand remains muted and ETFs persist as sellers, structural upside catalysts are limited, making prolonged consolidation or deeper corrections more likely until demand rebuilds.