CryptoQuant: No Bitcoin Capitulation Yet — On-Chain Data Points to $55K Bottom Scenario
Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin has not yet experienced a full capitulation that historically signals durable market bottoms. Key on-chain metrics — realized price, MVRV, NUPL, long-term holder (LTH) behavior and monthly realized losses — show the market is under stress but not in extreme surrender. Bitcoin currently trades more than 25% above its realized price; monthly realized losses are near ~300,000 BTC versus ~1.1M BTC at the 2022 low. Using historical deviations from realized price (2018 & 2022), CryptoQuant frames a scenario where a capitulation similar to prior cycles could push BTC toward roughly $55,000 (about 24–30% below realized price). The firm emphasizes this is a scenario, not a prediction, and notes macro factors (rates, regulation, institutional flows) could change outcomes. For traders, the analysis suggests elevated downside risk and a potentially prolonged base-formation period rather than an immediate V-shaped recovery; signals to watch include spikes in monthly realized losses, MVRV/NUPL hitting historical oversold extremes, and a fall in the share of supply in profit.
Bearish
The CryptoQuant analysis increases near-term downside risk for BTC because it finds no evidence of the deep capitulation that historically precedes lasting bottoms. Key metrics (MVRV, NUPL, realized losses, LTH distribution and the share of supply in profit) are not at prior-cycle extremes; monthly realized losses (~300k BTC) are far below 2022 levels (~1.1M BTC). That implies weaker hands may still be present and selling pressure could persist, extending the bottoming process. Traders are likely to respond with increased caution: reduced leverage, tightened risk limits, and selective buying on confirmed capitulation signals (spikes in realized losses, MVRV/NUPL oversold readings, breakdown below realized price). Short term this can translate into volatility and downward bias; medium-to-long term the absence of full capitulation could mean a slower, healthier consolidation if macro conditions stabilize and institutional holders absorb supply. Historical parallels: 2018 and 2022 saw deep realizations followed by 4–6 months of consolidation before recovery, suggesting a similar timeline could apply if capitulation eventually occurs.