Bitcoin Holders Return to Net Losses as Realized Profits Drop

Published: 2026-01-25 10:54:32 |

CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin holders moved into net realized losses on a 30‑day basis for the first time since October 2023, recording about 69,000 BTC in net losses since Dec. 23. Net realized profits have declined from a peak near 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to roughly 2.5 million BTC recently. On‑chain profit metrics have been weakening since the January 2024 peak, with successive lower profit peaks recorded in December 2024, July 2025 and October 2025. Demand indicators — including spot-market momentum and ETF flows — show contraction over the past 30 days and no meaningful recovery. Analysts say these signals resemble early bear‑market patterns (similar to 2021–2022 and March 2022), implying subdued price momentum and increased likelihood of continued selling pressure unless demand returns. For traders: the data suggests higher probability of short‑term downside and limited rally potential until ETF inflows or spot demand materially improve. Not investment advice.

Bearish

The combined reports show a clear deterioration in Bitcoin’s realized-profit dynamics and demand signals. A 30‑day net realized loss (~69,000 BTC) combined with a sustained drop in net realized profits (from ~4.4M BTC to ~2.5M BTC) indicates investors are increasingly selling at or below cost. Contraction in spot momentum and muted ETF inflows removes a common source of buying support. Historically, similar patterns preceded extended selling and weaker price momentum (early bear phases in 2021–2022 and March 2022). For short‑term trading, this raises the probability of further downside, higher volatility, and increased reward for short or hedged strategies until on‑chain profit metrics and demand indicators recover. For longer term holders, the data signals caution: a sustained low in realized profits could delay a durable recovery, but outcomes depend on renewed institutional flows or broad market catalysts. Overall, absent a pickup in ETF or spot demand, the immediate price impact is likely bearish.